Published on HK01, 3rd April 2025: Elon Musk稱只有Tesla能造Optimus？中國量產千台反擊｜蘇仲成
Tesla CEO Elon Musk declared this month that only Tesla possesses the integrated capabilities in hardware, software, AI, and automated production necessary to build a truly practical bipedal humanoid robot. However, I believe China’s rapidly rising manufacturing sector—particularly its ability to pivot its electric vehicle (EV) supply chain—positions it as a formidable contender in the humanoid robotics race.
In 2021, Musk unveiled the Optimus prototype during AI Day, which was initially met with skepticism. However, with ongoing technical demonstrations, Optimus has gradually moved beyond the PowerPoint stage. Standing 1.73 meters tall and weighing 57 kg, Optimus has 40 degrees of freedom and is powered by a 2.3kWh battery that enables a full day of operation on a single charge. Its control system leverages Tesla’s FSD chip and computer vision technology.
The robot is designed to replace “dangerous, repetitive, and boring” tasks in factories, such as moving parts, simple assembly, and warehouse organization. Musk stated that Optimus will begin internal deployment at Tesla factories in 2025, with large-scale production starting in 2026. The target price is between $20,000 and $30,000, with a long-term goal of reaching car-level production volumes.
However, Tesla has yet to disclose specific delivery plans or external orders. According to Musk, internal testing will produce several thousand units in 2025, with plans to ramp up production to over 50,000 units in 2026.
In addition to hardware, Tesla emphasizes the importance of AI software. Optimus runs on Tesla’s proprietary neural network platform, capable of object recognition, path planning, and hand manipulation in complex environments. Since late 2023, Tesla has demonstrated Optimus folding clothes and sorting small objects, showing tangible progress in perception and manipulation.
In contrast to Tesla’s corporate-driven approach, China’s government designated humanoid robotics as a “strategic emerging industry” by the end of 2023. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set a goal to achieve major technological breakthroughs and world-leading mass production capabilities by 2025. This has sparked a nationwide startup boom, with major EV, electronics, and AI firms jumping into the robotics space.
China’s strategy isn’t to rely on a single giant but to foster a diversified “startup matrix.” Cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Hefei have all established AI and robotics innovation parks, attracting talent and capital. Municipal governments in Beijing and Shanghai have even launched industrial funds exceeding 1 billion RMB to support local robotics companies in scaling production and integrating supply chains.
China’s EV makers are rapidly converting their production capacities to robot manufacturing. Examples include:
Other companies such as Leapmotor, NIO, and Li Auto have also set up robotics R&D teams and are considering using their vehicle AI platforms for humanoid robots.
This transition is enabled by the shared technology between EVs and robots: power batteries, servo motors, control chips, and automation—all transferable. Over 90% of EV components overlap with those needed for humanoid robots, meaning China already possesses a readily adaptable “robotic manufacturing chassis.”
China follows a government-led model, not only funding R&D but also establishing public industry funds and innovation centers to accelerate development. For instance, the national “X-Humanoid Center” offers open-source platforms for robot hardware and software to lower the barrier to entry.
In contrast, the U.S. relies on private firms like Tesla, Figure AI, and Apptronik. It lacks a unified national strategy. While the U.S. still holds advantages in AI research and chip development, China’s vast policy support and faster trial-and-error cycles may narrow the gap in the coming years.
Additionally, China’s robust manufacturing ecosystem—covering gear reducers, servo motors, and casing fabrication—enables rapid iteration and cost reduction. According to UBTech’s internal data, if annual output reaches 5,000 units, the unit cost of a robot with mobility and handling capabilities could fall below RMB 100,000.
Tech consultants point out: “Tesla has the world’s most advanced AI and vision systems, while China has the environment to commercialize products at scale.” If Tesla can deliver Optimus for under $20,000 and achieve daily operation, China must respond swiftly, or risk losing the first-mover advantage.
However, some experts note that real demand for humanoid robots remains exploratory. Most use cases—like logistics, transport, and inspection—already have mature non-humanoid solutions such as AGVs and robotic arms. The key advantage of humanoids lies in their ability to operate directly in human-designed spaces without modifying the environment.
If Tesla can prove Optimus is more efficient, reliable, and cost-effective than human workers in factories, it will open the door to commercializing humanoid robots. Whether Chinese companies can keep pace will determine their share and influence in the global market.
Whether it’s Tesla’s Optimus, Unitree’s H1, or UBTech’s Tien-Kung, the U.S.–China humanoid robot race is no longer a battle between companies, but a comprehensive contest of technology, policy, capital, and manufacturing systems. Tesla has the brain, while China is building the bodies and muscles.
Whoever masters cost-efficiency, reliability, and AI intelligence will likely invent the “iPhone of humanoid robots.”
As Tesla emerges from the automotive age, and China flexes its manufacturing muscle, their clash in the humanoid robot era will reshape global industrial dynamics and technological leadership.
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