The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: What AI’s Success Could Cost Us

Source: Citrini Research & Alap Shah | Published: February 23, 2026

AI labour displacement 2028 is the subject of a sobering thought exercise from Citrini Research.What if AI’s greatest success becomes its most dangerous liability? A thought-provoking scenario published by Citrini Research imagines a future macro memo dated June 2028 — one that paints a sobering picture of what an unchecked AI-driven labour displacement spiral could look like for the global economy.

Key Takeaways

1. The Intelligence Displacement Spiral

Beginning in late 2025, AI coding agents made a dramatic leap in capability. By 2026, companies could replicate entire SaaS products in-house within weeks, eroding the business models of the entire software industry. As firms cut headcount and reinvested savings into AI, a self-reinforcing loop emerged: fewer jobs, less consumer spending, more AI adoption — with no natural brake.

2. From Sector Risk to Economic Crisis

What began as a software sector story became economy-wide by 2027. White-collar workers — who drive roughly 75% of US discretionary spending — were hit hardest. Displaced professionals flooded gig and service jobs, compressing wages across the board. Unemployment surged to 10.2% by mid-2028, and the S&P 500 fell 38% from its October 2026 highs.

3. When AI Agents Took Over Commerce

AI agents began handling consumer decisions autonomously — price-matching, negotiating subscriptions, routing around interchange fees via stablecoins. This dismantled entire business models built on customer inertia: travel platforms, insurance renewals, real estate commissions, and even payment networks like Mastercard and Visa faced structural disruption.

4. The Private Credit Time Bomb

Over $2.5 trillion in private credit had been deployed into PE-backed software deals premised on perpetual revenue growth. When that growth evaporated, defaults cascaded — the most symbolic being Zendesk’s $5 billion direct lending facility. Life insurance companies holding this paper came under regulatory pressure, creating systemic risk that no one had fully priced.

5. The Mortgage Question

By mid-2028, the $13 trillion US residential mortgage market was under threat. Prime borrowers — 780 FICO scores, 20% down payments — began defaulting as their incomes structurally declined. Unlike 2008, the loans were sound at origination; the world changed after they were written.

6. Policy Falling Behind Reality

Federal tax receipts ran 12% below projections as income and payroll taxes collapsed. Labor’s share of GDP dropped from 56% to 46% in just four years. Proposals like the “Transition Economy Act” and the “Shared AI Prosperity Act” emerged, but political gridlock slowed any meaningful response.

AiX Society’s Perspective

This scenario — clearly labelled as a thought exercise, not a prediction — raises critical questions that every business leader and policymaker in Asia must consider:

• How do we design AI adoption strategies that preserve rather than destroy human economic participation?
• What role should governments play in redistributing the productivity gains from AI?
• How can Hong Kong and Asian economies position themselves as AI transforms global labour and capital markets?

At AiX Society, we believe the answer lies not in slowing AI adoption, but in thoughtful, human-centred implementation — one that builds AI literacy, supports workforce transition, and creates new value rather than simply extracting it.

AI Labour Displacement 2028: Implications for Hong Kong and Asia

Hong Kong occupies a unique position as AI labour displacement 2028 scenarios become increasingly relevant to regional policymakers and business leaders. As a global financial hub with deep ties to both Western and Chinese markets, Hong Kong faces a dual challenge: adapting its workforce to AI-driven change while maintaining its competitive edge in financial services, logistics, and professional industries.

The Citrini Research scenario suggests that industries reliant on knowledge workers — law, finance, consulting, and tech — are most exposed. For Hong Kong, where professional services account for a significant share of GDP, proactive AI governance and workforce reskilling are not optional — they are strategic imperatives. Governments and employers must collaborate to design safety nets and retraining pathways before displacement becomes irreversible.

What Can Businesses Do Now?

Rather than waiting for policy intervention, forward-thinking companies in Hong Kong and across Asia can take immediate steps. Investing in AI literacy programmes for employees, auditing which roles are most at risk of automation, and building internal reskilling pipelines are all practical measures. Companies that treat AI as a partner in productivity — rather than a replacement for headcount — are best positioned to thrive, even in a scenario resembling the 2028 global intelligence crisis outlined by Citrini Research.

AiX Society is committed to helping organisations in Hong Kong and the broader Asia-Pacific region navigate this AI transition responsibly. Through education, research, and community dialogue, we aim to ensure that artificial intelligence serves human progress, not at its expense.

Read the full original article at Citrini Research: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

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